IEA's World Energy Outlook: oil demand to rise 14% by 2035, as supply plummets

In Canada, the Global Renewable Fuels Alliance writes: “Today’s release of the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook in London has again confirmed the end of cheap oil blaming growing energy demand and declining oil reserves.

According the Report, oil demand will rise 14% between 2010 and 2035, from 87 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2010 to 99 mb/d in 2035. All net increases in oil demand will come entirely from the transportation sector in emerging economies as economic growth pushes up demand for personal mobility and freight goods.

To compensate for declining crude oil production at existing oil fields, the Report claims that 47 mb/d of oil production must be discovered and brought to market by 2035. That will mean new reserves will have to be exploited – namely environmentally damaging tar sands or dangerous deep well oil.

According to the IEA, over 90% of the required growth in world oil output will come from OPEC countries, pushing the share of OPEC in global production above 50% by 2035.

The IEA also highlighted the potential for supply disruptions in the Middle East and North African countries as a potential threat to world oil supplies saying that “If, between 2011 and 2015, investment in the MENA region runs one-third lower than the $100 billion per year required…consumers could face a substantial near-term rise in the oil price to $150/barrel.”