We Came in Peace: The Renewable Fuel Standard and the spirit of innovation

The Digest scenario

Here’s the other scenario — the Digest’s.

(Keep in mind that volume totals are expressed, like RFS2, in ethanol-equivalent gallons. Biobutanol counts for 1.3 gallons, biodiesel for 1.5 gallons, and renewable diesel for 1.7 gallons, based on higher energy density.)

1. Starting point – 15 billion gallons of ethanol capacity and roughly 1.5 billion gallons in currently available biodiesel production capacity (and 1.2 billion gallons in offline capacity).

In order to skirt the US around the current 10 percent ethanol blend limit – we see biobutanol as the fuel of choice. Biobutanol blends at 16 percent into gasoline under the same structural rules by which ethanol blends at 10 percent. The technology to switch ethanol plants to biobutanol production is deployed by Gevo at Luverne, MN, and Butamax is rapidly bringing its technology forward for commercialization in 2014-15. Both have large early adopter groups.

17.25 billion gallons 

2. Cellulosic bolt-ons. It’s widely agreed that current ethanol capacity can be boosted 25% by adding cellulosic production capacity – and that this represents a safe amount of “lift” of residue from the field (e.g. retaining enough for soil health). This is the technology developed, for example, by POET-DSM and deployed at their Emmetsburg, IA plant— and for which they hired a business development manager this week to start selling to third parties.

3.8 billion gallons 

3. Algae bolt-ons. It is widely agreed that there is enough CO2 and process heat available from ethanol fermentation to boost fuels production by 15%, through adding algae production. This is a technology in testing now by BioProcess Algae at the Green Plains Renewable Energy plant in Shenandoah, IA. The product here is a choice between biodiesel or renewable diesel.

(Though we also note that Algenol is rapidly bringing forward their a technology for producing ethanol from CO2, water and sunlight).

3.4 billion gallons 

4. Greenfield cellulosic ethanol. There’s certainly time, and available technology, to build 750 million gallons of capacity from each of wood, MSW and energy crops & residues — or 2.3 billion gallons in total. INEOS Bio, Inbicon, Fulcrum, Enerkem, ZeaChem, Abengoa, Fiberight, Dupont, and Beta Renewables all have the technology and have built or are building plants. Cobalt and Green Biologics the cellulosic biobutanol technology.

2.3 billion gallons 

5. Biodiesel ramp up. An NBB-sponsored report from IHS Global Insight projected that the biodiesel industry could boost production to 3.3. billion gallons by 2022. Ron Kotrba at Biodiesel Magazine went through some of the bullish data, here.

3.5 billion gallons 

6. Renewable diesel and jet fuel imports. There’s already 1 billion gallons in capacity in place or under construction around the world – roughly 250 million gallons in the US. Our scenario calls for 1 billion gallons of imports (and there is already 750 million gallons of capacity available off-shore, mostly from Neste, with lots more on the drawing board this decade from the likes of BP).

1.7 billion gallons 

7. Renewable diesel and jet fuel greenfield capacity. In addition, our scenario calls for 3.0 billion gallons of greenfield domestic renewable diesel.

That would require 430 million gallons of new capacity each from tallow, algae, oilseeds, wood, MSW & cellulose, and CO2. Diamond Green Diesel, Emerald Biofuels, Dynamic Fuels, Neste Oil have available technology for tallow. Sapphire Energy is projecting 1 billion gallons from algae by 2022 in its plan.  KiOR and Sundrop Fuels have available technology for wood-based biofuels; (the latter with a natural gas booster).MSW & cellulose: Envergent and Solena are deploying technologies now.  CO2: Joule Unlimited is deploying its technology demonstration now. Renewable diesel, based on energy density, count for 1.7 ethanol-equivalent gallons eachOilseeds: AltAir is deploying this technology now, and is scheduled to begin supply to United Airlines in 2015.

5.1 billion gallons 

Who do you believe – and what are the options and the path forward?