Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership’s scenarios for meeting UK’s 2020 renewable transport target

From the EU, the Renewable Energy Association is hailing scenarios published by the Low Carbon Vehicle Partnership as “an important step forward for the sustainable biofuels industry”, noting that “the absence of a clear Government plan for meeting the 2020 renewable transport target has seen investment in the sector grind to a halt.”

The LowCVP published twin reports which set out how the UK could meet the targets for 2020, defined in the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, and proceed on a pathway to decarbonise road transport fuel in the period to 2030 and beyond.

The UK Government previously stated it would not increase the yearly biofuel mandates in its key biofuels policy, the Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation beyond 2014 due to lingering uncertainty at EU level over a phenomenon called indirect land use change (ILUC). The EU Energy Council finally reached political agreement on accounting for ILUC in the EU policy framework last Friday, enabling the UK to move forward with expanding the RTFO.

The RTFO currently requires 4.75% of UK transport fuel to come from renewable sources (about 3% of transport energy), but Government has not set out an increasing requirement beyond 2013/14. The 2020 target is 10% transport energy from renewable sources, or approximately 13.5% of fuel from renewable sources.

The increasing trajectory of the RTFO since 2009, the current stagnation in the RTFO, and an illustrative trajectory to 2020

In the first report – RED Scenarios —  the researchers looked at four of the most promising scenarios to assess the best way for the UK to comply with the 2020 target. It found that adopting a majority combination of 10% ethanol in petrol (E10) and 7% biodiesel in diesel (B7) was the most pragmatic way of achieving the target with the vehicles and infrastructure available over the next five years. To achieve this objective, however, would require full uptake by consumers and operators of E10 and B7 and that a significant volume of double counting blendable RED compliant material were available to the market.

Speaking today at Platts Biofuels Conference in Prague, LowCVP Policy and Operations Director Jonathan Murray welcomed the recent decision coming from the EU energy ministers to clarify the RED: “Our work provides a clear basis of evidence to show how the UK can meet its RED obligations to 2020 and contribute to carbon reductions from transport fuels in the longer term.”

Under the scenario recommended by the report’s authors, the ethanol blend would increase to 10%, the authors contending that it is preferable to introducing new pumps for high-blend biodiesel (e.g. B30, B100) at truck and bus depots and/or new pumps for E20 or E85. The 2020 10% renewable transport target would comprise 3% from current generation biofuels, 7% from “double counted biodiesel” from used cooking oil (UCO) and tallow; and 0.1% from biomethane and the share of renewable electricity powering electric vehicles.

A second report, “A Fuel Roadmap for the UK,” looks at 2020 and beyond. The authors say that for the most important next step the Government can take is to increase the RTFO levels out to 2020. The 0.5% sub-target for advanced biofuels agreed in the EU ILUC package could also provide impetus for the development of advanced biofuels in Europe.

REA Head of Renewable Transport Clare Wenner said: “The analyses published today should help kick-start the debate on how to do this in a way that maximises economic benefit for the UK and environmental benefit for us all. There’s no time to wait, and now there’s no need to wait. Government must seize this opportunity to get green transport back on track. UK biofuel producers achieve exceptional greenhouse gas savings and produce home-grown animal feed as well as sustainable biofuel. We do science and engineering very well in the UK, so with the right support for advanced biofuels, we could become a key player in this cutting-edge sector.”

The table below shows the increasing trajectory of the RTFO since 2009, the current stagnation in the RTFO, and an illustrative trajectory to 2020