True energy security

An F/A-18 Super Hornet from Air Test and Evaluation Squadron 23

Those of you who have not seen Michael Breen at ABLC earlier this year, or this week at the Algae Biomass Summit, missed out on a pair of very special addresses. We have provided excerpts from his latest address, this at the Algae Biomass Summit.

I got my introduction to energy security in my first year out of college in 2004, as a second lieutenant in the US Army, defending a stretch of road south of Baghdad in the Triangle of Death, watching the dust plumes from a medivac helicopters taking our guys from where they had been hit my improvised explosive devices, or IEDs.

I was assigned to what was called route security. My mission was to secure the fuel trucks out of Baghdad. It was like a self-licking ice cream cone, almost all of the fuel that was transported was used to supply the return fuel for the convoy, and for our force defending the road. The rest of the fuel was used for our incredibly inefficient generators and for the military vehicles. We had heavy vehicles and one of our jobs was to trip up all the IEDs before the fuel trucks did.

[Note to readers. In the middle phase of the Iraq occupation, IEDs were responsible for more than 60% of all coalition deaths in Iraq, and were used primarily as roadside bombs, often connected in daisy-chains to inflict maximum damage on convoys].

Like many of our troops, I came home from the war with a changed view about energy and security, and together with 50,000 former troops in Operation Free, ranging from junior NCOs to 3-star generals, we “stormed the White House” to help defend the military’s use of alternative energy and fuels when some members of Congress tried to scale back the program.

Why not just pump and pump and pump?

The most dangerous fallacy going around today is the idea that the United State is going to become energy independent by pumping more domestic oil. Oil is the ultimate global commodity, traded on a global market and priced based on global supply and global demand. And no matter what is happening in the developed world, the “developing world” includes China and India, and China’s oil demand is expected to rise 80 percent in the next two decades, and India is expected to rise 96%.

Even on the most optimistic projection of oil production, the US share of global oil production vs. the the global demand will remain exactly the same, and the US will continue to be exposed to a volatile energy price based on that rising global demand, and rising global uncertainty. It completely does not matter what is happening in Belgium or the United States, energy traders are reacting to global uncertainty and anywhere in the world where there is instability inflicts higher oil prices here on US.

There is no escape from energy politics unless you free yourself from the geopolitical equation based on global oil.

Here’s another way to look at energy security. Everyone knows the Strait of Hormuz, and that this is the strategic route that Iran routinely threatens to close, and that the US military defends and keeps open. It is one of the most critical sea lanes in the world, and the cost to the US military to defend the Strait was recently estimated at $90 billion per year.

What are we defending with our dollars and our troops?

But what you probably don’t know is that 85% of the oil that passes through the Strait is not bound for the United States, it is bound for Asia.

We are not in the Strait spending $90 billion each year to secure our own energy. We are there defending the oil price and global stability, because if those supplies did not reach Asia, well you can imagine the consequences.

If there’s a better example of the massive geopolitical consequences of our dependence on oil, I don’t know it. $90 billion and all those personnel at risk, to assure the supply of someone else’s oil, and to maintain the oil price.

You might have heard of ISIS, or Islamic State — which is neither Islamic nor a state. It is the darkest army on the face of the earth — using assassination, rape, torture — beading a number of US and European civilians in recent weeks.

Where does the money come from for our adversaries? Who is funding them, with what?

You might wonder where all their money comes from.

Well, they control 10 oil fields in Syria and Iraq and they pump 80000 barrels a day of oil which they sell into the global market for oil, generating $200 million a month for themselves which they use to buy arms, fighters, and loyalty. In fact, the US has started bombing their oil fields and refineries in order to deny them that resource.

We are shackled to a global market and shackled to a global crisis, funded by oil and fueled by oil.

An escape from the cycle of violence and volatility

There is a growing number of people, in the military and outside of it, who have begun to conclude that advanced energy technologies are the solution to this addiction to oil. That’s why I was one of the first 100 to join Operation Free and why more than 50,000 have joined to date.

Those of us who have been in the military know it is not going to be easy to be the first technology, or the first producer, or the first user. As one of my military instructors taught me, the first guy through the wall gets bloody.

But this industry does not have a choice except to succeed.

Now, I know there has been pushback on the introduction of advanced biofuels from some customers, who say that because of some problem they had with ethanol in their lawnmower back in the 80s that they think all these fuels are bad.

But I can tell you, they are using advanced biofuel blends on F18s in combat conditions. And if TOP GUN guys flying F18’s in combat are OK with these fuels, your F150 is going to be just fine.

The greatest security threat

Admiral Samuel Lockyear is the Commander of the US Pacific Command, the supreme military authority in an area that comprises 50 percent of the surface area of the Earth and 60 percent of its population. His inbox includes a nuclear North Korea, the rise of China, and terrorist networks in numerous countries, just to name a few of his concerns.

He was asked recently what he believed was the biggest threat in his region. He said, “climate change”.

[Note to readers. Adm. Lockyear said that a global crisis triggered by climate change “is probably the most likely thing that is going to happen . . . that will cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.’’]

Now, climate change is not always popular to talk about in Washington, but it’s less controversial around the country. More and more people are living in coastal areas and are affected by climate shift. And we also know that at the present time and for the future, our enemies are fed more by famine, drought, poverty and hopelessness than by ideology.

The $10 problem

You might not know that the going rate for a rocket attack on my unit was $10.

What kind of despair does it take for $10 to become a worthwhile payment for a suicide attack. But when the crop doesn’t grow, or the kids aren’t fed, you get an acceleration of instability all over the world and it hits you right there.

Here’s another way it can affect you. in 2010, the Pakistan military finally unleashed an offensive against the Taliban. You probably remember that the Taliban operate not only in Afghanistan, but on the Pakistan side of the border, and the military has been extremely reluctant to intervene. But now they were ready.

Then, a massive flood occurred. 20 million Pakistanis were left homeless. 20 percent of the country went underwater. Disease was rampant, particularly cholera. Food was scarce, fresh water supplies were threatened.

The Pakistan military couldn’t get in there right away, but Al-Qaeda did. Recruiting shot up. The battle against the insurgents failed. In fact, we were defeated, by climate shift.

Climate change is a threat multiplier that exacerbates resource scarcity, political instability, and social tensions- conditions which enable terrorism and other forms of violence.

True American Energy Security

True American Energy Security can only be achieved through a comprehensive approach, relentlessly focused on three key principles: Freedom of Action, Assured Access, and Minimizing Risk.

Action. To maintain freedom of action and respond quickly and decisively to threats, our military must increase the range and endurance of its ships, aircraft and vehicles.

Access. We can only ensure access to reliable supplies of fuel if we have a diverse set of sources. We should be building markets, not chained to them. For the military this means the ability to respond quickly and decisively to threats and missions. All Americans need the same security and capability. They need to know they’ll be able to fill their tank to get to work at a reasonable price.

Risk. Climate change is already creating severe global impacts- from exacerbating conflicts in Darfur and Syria to threatening military installations in Florida and Norfolk, Virginia. We must work to mitigate against those threats, through investing in energy efficiency, renewable power generation, and advanced low carbon fuels.”

Note to readers: For more about the Truman National Security Project and Mike Breen, click here.