Smaller rapeseed harvest reduces stocks

December 23, 2016 |

In Germany, UFOP reports that global rapeseed consumption will clearly exceed production in the 2016/17 marketing year. This is likely to result in a decrease in ending stocks and changes in the flows of goods.

According to USDA’s December forecast, global rapeseed production in the 2016/17 marketing year is going to decline by around 3.5 per cent from the previous year to just under 68 million tonnes. According to information published by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbH (AMI), rapeseed output is going to increase, in some cases significantly, in some countries, such as Australia or India, but the rise is not sufficient to offset the almost 10 per cent decline in both China and the EU-28.

Since worldwide use of rapeseed oil remains unchanged while production is likely to drop by 3 per cent concurrently with rapeseed production, the global supply/demand balance for the 2016/17 marketing year is much tighter than a year earlier. Global rapeseed consumption is forecast to fall to just under 69 million tonnes, but the decline of 2.4 per cent is smaller than the drop in production. Consequently, rapeseed ending stocks are projected to shrink by more than 15 per cent to 5.5 million tonnes, which means that in terms of figures, global stocks would not even last for one month.

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