Oil to head for $70 in 2017: Report

January 8, 2017 |

In New York, Raymond James analyst Pavel Molchanov and the RJ energy team write: “One year ago, we thought that 2016 oil prices would rally in the back half of the year, natural gas prices would be stagnant, and energy stocks in general would meaningfully outperform the broader market. Check. Oops. Check. After bottoming in February 2016, oil prices doubled from trough levels by the end of the year, though they didn’t quite reach the $60+ exit range we had in mind a year ago, and the full-year average of $43 WTI was modestly below our annual forecast of $50. As far back as 2012, our oil model has suggested the mid-$60s as the ”right” oil price to balance the market. We still believe that is close to the right number. With WTI’s 2017 futures strip in the mid-$50s, oil prices are still too low, even after their double off the bottom. Given the price point starting the year, we are lowering our 2017 WTI forecast from $80 to $70, but this still represents the peak of the upcycle.

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