New study says RIN price shifts haven’t impacted retail gasoline prices

October 17, 2017 |

In Washington, despite continued claims by opponents of the Renewable Fuel Standard, prices of the renewable identification number (RINs) credits used for RFS compliance have not caused changes in retail gasoline prices, according to a new analysis by Informa Agribusiness Consulting.

The analysis, commissioned by the Renewable Fuels Association, looked at trends in the prices for conventional biofuel RINs and retail gasoline from 2013 to the summer of 2017.

“Based on statistical analysis, it can be concluded that changes in RIN prices did not ‘cause’ the changes that occurred in retail gasoline prices in 2013, and this has continued to be the case through the summer of 2017,” according to Informa Agribusiness Consulting. Instead, the price of retail gasoline has been primarily driven by movements in crude oil prices and by changes in the spread between domestic and international crude oil prices, as well as seasonal demand, the analysis found.

“…[C]hanges in RIN prices have not caused changes in retail gasoline prices (or vice-versa). To any extent that the two are related, it is not a direct causal relationship,” the analysis noted.

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