Rapeseed supplies predicted to shrink

In Germany, UFOP reports that world rapeseed stocks are likely to dwindle further in the 2017/18 marketing year, falling to the lowest level in five years. The reason is that more rapeseed is being consumed than produced.

In its latest estimate of the global rapeseed market published in November, the USDA revised the figures for key market parameters up. The global rapeseed harvest is currently seen at 72.06 million tonnes, up 0.3 per cent from the October estimate. This would translate to a 2.6 per cent rise year-on-year. The main reason for the slight upward adjustment is the 2017 rapeseed harvest in the EU-28, which is estimated to stand at around 22.1 million tonnes. This would be up 7.6 per cent from 2016.

Global rapeseed consumption is expected to increase to 73.07 million tonnes in the 2017/18 marketing year. In other words, the forecast was raised 1 per cent from the previous month and is up 2.3 per cent from the previous year’s level. According to information published by German Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbH (AMI), the reason is the steady growth in demand from China. The country’s demand is expected to hit 18.1 million tonnes, exceeding the year-ago figure by around 5 per cent. As a result, global rapeseed ending stocks would fall to 4.9 million tonnes. This would be the lowest value in five years and down around 18 per cent from the year-ago level.