Declining production causes soybean stocks to shrink

In Germany, world soybean output in the 2017/18 marketing year will likely be lower than previously expected. According to USDA’s consumption forecast as reported by UFOP, global ending stocks could in fact dwindle.

In its March crop outlook, the USDA forecast the 2017/18 Argentinian soybean crop down around 13 per cent from the previous month to take account of the continued drought in the country. By contrast, the forecast for Brazil’s soybean output was slightly raised from the previous month to 113 million tonnes. Consequently, the current expectation falls only 1.1 million tonnes short of the previous year’s record. Since the crop estimate for US soy remained unchanged, the US agricultural experts pegged global production in 2017/18 at just less than 341 million tonnes. Global consumption was estimated at just under 344 million tonnes and expected to exceed the previous year’s level by more than 4 per cent.