Global soybean crop smaller than expected

April 22, 2018 |

In Germany, UFOP reports that the world’s 2017/18 soybean output will be significantly smaller than previously expected. Argentina is set to harvest one third less than initially projected. Larger harvests in Brazil and the U.S. will not suffice to offset the shortfall.

In many parts of Argentina in the past months, field crops were adversely affected by exceptionally high temperatures and lack of rain. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI), harvest estimates have been forecast down steadily over the past few weeks. The current USDA forecast puts the Argentinian soybean crop for 2017/18 at only 40 million tonnes. This is down around 7 million tonnes from the previous month and virtually one third from forecasts made early this year. By contrast, the crop forecast for Brazil was raised 2 million tonnes to 115 million tonnes due to practically optimal growing conditions. Accordingly, global soybean output could reach 335 million tonnes in the running marketing year. This translates to a just less than 5 per cent drop from the previous year. The Argentine share is likely to fall by 4 per cent to below the level of 12 per cent.

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