Global rapeseed stocks could shrink to six-year low

July 14, 2018 |

In Germany, UFOP reports that the current IGC report on global rapeseed supply in 2018/19 expects world rapeseed stocks to see a significant decline. The reason is smaller harvests, especially in the EU-28 and Australia.

In its outlook for the 2018/19 marketing year, the International Grain Council (IGC) projects global rapeseed production at 72.1 million tonnes. This translates to a 1.1 million tonne drop from the previous month’s estimate and a 3.5 per cent decrease from the previous year. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbH (AMI), the main reason is significantly lowered harvest outlooks for the EU-28 and Australia, where drought has put a damper on yield potentials. Although the production area is projected to go down slightly, the main reason for lowering the forecast was lower yield expectations. The current harvest estimate for the EU-28 is 20.5 million tonnes. This is 7 per cent below the year-ago level. As regards Australia, the IGC puts rapeseed production at 3.1 million tonnes, down virtually 16 per cent from the previous year. At the same time, the agricultural experts expect global consumption to hit a record at just less than 74 million tonnes. In other words, rapeseed consumption would exceed production by around 1.4 million tonnes. As a result, global supplies are seen to shrink to 4.9 million tonnes. This would translate to a 22 per cent drop from 2017/18 to the lowest value in six years. In view of these forecasts, the Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen (UFOP) expects producer prices to pick up at harvest.

Category: Fuels

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