Behind the scenes with E15 as we peel back the layers

Sometimes we feel like we are living in an alternate universe. You think everything is great – President Trump announces support for year-round E15 and things are looking up for ethanol. Then you open a newspaper (in your hands or on your web browser…) and the Halloween horror begins and you see an article attacking year-round ethanol or a press release that says E15 will ruin your engines.

So what to believe? Is E15 a trick or a treat? We imagine most readers here will side with “treat” but today we look at why the naysayers are naysaying, why they are throwing eggs at our front doors and toilet papering our neighborhood, and while we are at it, let’s set the record straight on a few facts about the policy and emissions.

The history

Let’s start with the basics because we keep hearing so much against E15 like it’s some new candy for Halloween. Ethanol has been around for what seems forever – it was used as far back as the 1800’s and Henry Ford used vegetable based ethyl alcohol calling it the “fuel of the future” back in 1925.

More recently in 2011, E15 was approved by the EPA for all vehicles 2001 and newer – nearly 9 out of 10 cars on the road today, or about 92 percent of all registered cars and trucks. In fact, according to Growth Energy, “E15 is the most tested fuel in history. The Department of Energy tested 86 vehicles for a total of six million miles using E15 without a single fuel-related problem.”

Growth Energy also states, “Most automakers – including all the Big Three – now explicitly warranty E15 for all new models. Drivers have driven over 4 billion miles using E15. And NASCAR mechanics agree, which is why they’ve trusted higher ethanol blends for over 10 million miles on the race track. Already, gas stations in 30 states offer E15, giving drivers a better, more affordable choice at the pump. In areas where higher blends are available, E15 is less expensive than E10 by 5 to 10 cents on average.”

Those are some impressive stats and look more like treats, not tricks, to me. It keeps getting better too, as reported by The Digest last week, the Renewable Fuels Association conducted an analysis of which automakers are explicitly approved by the manufacturer to use 15 percent ethanol blends (E15). What they found is impressive with more than 93 percent of 2019 model year (MY) vehicles being approved for E15. For the first time, Subaru is approving the use of E15 in several of its most popular models for MY 2019, including the Ascent, Crosstrek and Impreza.

“As this analysis shows, virtually all new vehicles are clearly approved by the manufacturer to use E15, a cleaner and cheaper fuel blend that is available today at more than 1,400 stations in 29 states,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “While ethanol opponents continue to spread false and misleading information about E15, American drivers deserve to know the truth—nine out of 10 vehicles on the road today are legally approved by EPA to use E15, and 28 of the 32 vehicle lines reviewed in this analysis carry the manufacturer’s approval of E15,” he said.

Growth Energy also had some big news as reported in NUU earlier this month, that Cumberland Farms is the newest E15 retail partner to join the Prime the Pump program and will begin offering E15 at more than 120 of its stores in the Northeast United States.

“E15 year-round provides a level of certainty for many in different ways,” Growth Energy’s CEO, Emily Skor, told The Digest over the weekend. “This fix lifts a costly regulation on retailers who must retool their labels and pumps each year, costing them millions of dollars. It’s certainly been a barrier to many retailers looking at adding E15 to their fuel offering, and I do think we are going to see more retailers moving to adopt E15 with a lifting of the RVP restrictions. We’ve heard from retailers who have been and continue to keep a close eye on this decision.” Skor highlighted that there are currently over 1,600 stations that offer E15 and she is “confident those numbers will continue to grow.”

Why is year-round E15 an issue?

Ok, so almost all U.S. gasoline is already blended with 10 percent ethanol, right? And nearly 9 out of 10 cars on the road today are approved for E15? And according to Skor, “outdated regulations also impose a heavy cost on consumers who could be saving up to 10 cents on every gallon and year-round E15 sales promise to drive demand for two billion bushels of American corn, promote U.S. energy security, and help restore growth in rural communities.”

Sounds like a treat, so what’s the trick?

As RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper summed up on RFA’s “E15: From Policy to the Pump” conference call a few days ago, “Not everyone is as excited as we are and oil companies are ramping up attacks on the EPA and President Trump for this.” The call was “to set the record straight,” said Cooper and he had quite a bit of support on the call to help do that.

Auto industry expert and GM’s former director of alternative fuels, Gary Herwick, said on the call that he can understand why the oil industry opposes E15 since they don’t want to lose any more market share, but “there is a lot of misinformation out there.” Herwick was involved in a study that looked at the “durability effects of E15 and higher ethanol blends and out of that study it was clear that there was no adverse engine effect on the vehicles we tested. There is no basis for saying it damages engines.”

What about the environment? The air emissions? The volatility? Will year-round E15 make air quality issues worse in the summer?

“Heck no” is the consensus among the ethanol industry, which is not surprising, but they have the scientific evidence to support it.

Herwick said on the RFA call that in his automotive studies, “there is no basis for the air quality effects,” and that the volatility differences are essentially the same in E15 as E10. He referred to studies that have shown no effect in additional vaporization compared between the two.

Also supporting the science, Janet Yanowitz, P.E., PhD, Ecoengineering, Inc. and an air quality expert with some serious experience in vehicle emissions said, “There is no evidence that E15 will increase the emissions of either NOX or organics, which are the two pollutants that cause ozone from tailpipe emissions.” Even better, she found there was a reduction in carbon monoxide.

Yanowitz emphasized that the many studies she has been involved in or analyzed showed “no statistically significant impact on emissions. I don’t know where the discussion in the media comes from because the emissions tests published by scientists and engineers do not show any increase in emissions with E15 in comparison to E10.”

The policy

So the big question is will the EPA issue the waiver to E15 so it can be sold in the summer?

Matt Morrison, RFA Outside Counsel who has practiced environmental law for over 30 years, including previous work for the EPA focusing on fuels, said, “EPA has the authority to extend the waiver to E15. The Clean Air Act puts restrictions on the volatility of fuel as measured by RVP – reid vapor pressure – to combat summer ozone and 9PSI is built into the statute. Adding some ethanol will increase slightly the amount of RVP compared to ethanol free fuel, but Congress realizes the benefits of ethanol to allow blending even during summer months. No debate that the waiver extends to E10, but the discussion is does it extend to E15 and higher blends? In my analysis it should and it does.”

There are two statutory provisions to look at 211F – focused on fuels and fuel additives and 211H – focused on RVP according to Morrison. He made a good point that EPA included the waiver for E10 because that was the highest ethanol blend allowed in fuels at the time, which is no longer the case. He summed up making the case that the “EPA’s extension of waiver and allowance of an additional 1 PSI would be consistent with the language of the statute and with congressional history and intent and appropriate for the benefit that E15 would provide.”

Bottom Line

The big question now is will this happen by next summer? EPA’s proposal is scheduled for February with a final ruling by May in order to have E15 available at gas pumps in June.

RFA’s Cooper noted that the two sections of the Clean Air Act 211H and 211F both have to be addressed in whatever regulation goes forward but they don’t need to go forward together. In fact, the prediction is that 211H will probably go into comment period first. Either way, the key is getting it done in time for summer.

Growth Energy’s Skor, said “The White House has made it very clear it expects the new rule in place by the next summer driving season (June 1). The EPA announced it will release the rule in February and Acting Administrator Wheeler affirmed last week that the EPA has the authority to grant the RVP waiver.”

As for tricks or treats, we think E15 is a treat. And some of that negative media blitz pushed by oil companies, a trick. So as you walk around this Halloween and wonder if what you see is real, think about that next time you read or hear something about E15. Ask to see the data, the studies, the proof.