Global rapeseed area stable

In Germany, UFOP reports that whereas the rapeseed areas in the EU-28, Russia and China are expected to see a slight rise in the coming marketing year, the production area will presumably remain constant in Canada and likely decline somewhat in Ukraine.

According to the latest information published by the International Grain Council (IGC), the global rapeseed area in 2020/21 will probably be up 3 per cent from the current marketing year to 35.5. million hectares. In the EU-28, Russia and China, the area is expected to increase. More specifically, the EU area planted with rapeseed could rise 7.4 per cent to 5.9 million hectares following the sharp decline in 2019/20, although, according to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbH (AMI), the sowing campaign was impaired by unfavourable weather in the north and east of the EU. In Russia, the IGC expects the area to expand 6.3 per cent to 1.7 million hectares due to the global growth in demand. The rapeseed area in China is seen to increase 1.2 per cent to 6.8 million hectares.

By contrast, the Canadian production area is anticipated to remain unchanged at 8.5 million hectares. Canadian farmers decided not to expand the rapeseed area due to the uncertainty of demand – especially from China – for Canadian rapeseed exports. Chinese rapeseed imports virtually came to a standstill in 2019 because of political disagreements. At the same time, large stocks and smaller exports to the EU are putting a damper on market expectations. European oil mills preferably draw on rapeseed from Eastern Europe, because it is GM-free, ensuring that the rapeseed meal produced can be marketed easily.

Nevertheless, the IGC expects the Ukrainian rapeseed hectarage to decline 7.1 per cent to 1.2 million hectares. About 1.1 million hectares have been sown to date, with the remaining land likely to be sown in spring. However, due to the continued drought, the Ukrainian crops in the fields are in a less than ideal condition. Consequently, it remains to be seen whether farmers will confirm the ICG’s expectation as regards sowings in spring.

From the perspective of the Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen (UFOP), the trend in EU rapeseed area is alarming as regards domestic market supply, because the production area is in decline – with one of the reasons being drought-induced low per-hectare yields. The organisation argues that there is an obvious lack of stimuli from processors, with no adequate price bids ahead of the sowings to push rapeseed production. After sowings are complete, processors complain about the need for imports to offset the shortage, UFOP has observed, challenging the oil mills’ strategy to secure feedstock.