Airbus says world aircraft fleet to double by 2026 – greenhouse gases to soar despite next-gen jet engines

Airbus said that the global aircraft fleet will double by 2026 — to more than 28,000 passenger and cargo aircraft, up from 13,000 today, and said that the industry’s share of greenhouse gas emissions would increase from 2 percent to 3 percent, even with the introduction of new eco-friendly jet engines. The Aviation Environment Federation, said that the 50% reduction in fuel consumption suggested by Boeing as a 2050 target, must be brought forward by several decades.

There has been an ongoing dispute between some environmental groups, such as Friends of the Earth, and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on the tally of emissions.Environmental groups typically include a calculation called “radiative force”, which attempts to multiply greenhouse gas emissions by a factor that takes into account the effect of high altitude. Using this method, it has been stated that airlines are responsible for 12 to 13 percent of all greenhouse gases. IATA uses a figure of 3 percent, or 600 million tons of CO2.

IATA has set a goal of making planes 25 percent more fuel efficient by 2022, but with airlines expected to increase fleet size by 140 percent in the next 20 years, such an effort would not keep pace with the rate of airline fleet growth.

Accordingly, IATA has set a goal for the airline industry of producing “zero emission” planes within 50 years. The presumption is that new fuel technologies will emerge that will make this possible.

For now, with solar power not yet able to generate sufficient energy to power jet engines, airlines have been increasingly exploring biofuels. Virgin CEO Richard Branson has invested in biobutanol production and is conducting a biodiesel test this month in a Virgin 747 flying from London to Amsterdam.

Meanwhile, IATA appointed a global director of environment initiatives.

Giovanni Bisignani, Director General and CEO of IATA said, “Air transport takes its environmental responsibility seriously. Alongside safety and security it is a pillar on which we have built a great global industry. Despite our good track record, air transport’s carbon footprint is growing. That is not acceptable. Our vision is for air transport to achieve carbon neutral growth in the medium-term, on the way to a carbon emission free future. Paul Steele, the new executive, was formerly COO at the World Wildlife Fund.

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