Energy Information Administration says US will fall 10 percent short of 2022 biofuels goal; greenhouse gases to increase 16 percent by 2030

In Washington, the Energy Information Administration projected that the US will blend only 32.5 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022, well short of the Renewable Fuel Standard target of 36 billion gallons. Guy Caruso, who heads the U.S. Energy Information Administration, told the Senate Energy Committee that the shortfall was expected in cellulosic ethanol, and would only be partly offset by an increase in imported ethanol following the expected repeal of the ethanol tariff in 2009.

Caruso said that US fuel imports would fall from 60 percent today to 51 percent in 2022 because of the impact of biofuels production. Caruso advised that he expected US output of greenhouse gases to increase 16 percent by 2030; a drop of 60-80 percent is needed by 2050 to stop global warming.

The Energy Information Administration released long-term fuel demand projections last fall that said the US will derive 83 percent of its energy needs from fossil fuels by 2030, down only 3 points from the 86 percent figure for 2006.

The EIA, which projected in its study that biofuel consumption would increase to 17 billion gallons by 2030, may have to revise its figures in the light of the passage of the Energy Bill. The Bill mandates that 36 billion gallons of biofuel fuel consumption by 2022, or more than 25 percent of total fuel use based on 2006 consumption.

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