Today in Biofuels Opinion: “We think U.S. gasoline demand has peaked.”

From the Guardian (UK): “American gasoline demand may keep falling even as the economy recovers due to ambitious U.S. policy pushing alternative fuels and efficiency — a prospect that could force oil refineries to close…”It’s more than just a business cycle,” said Joanne Shore, lead analyst for the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “We know that this is a long-term change for gasoline demand.” U.S. gasoline use fell last year for the first time since 1991 under the weight of the financial crisis and experts attending conferences in San Antonio this week said rising production of ethanol and the prospects for better auto efficiency standards in the years to come could mean consumption of the key motor fuel has peaked. “We think U.S. gasoline demand has peaked,” said Alan Gelder, vice president of downstream oil for analyst Wood Mackenzie, which on Monday released a study saying smaller, East Coast refineries primarily producing gasoline would face the greatest challenges for surviving. “We think gasoline demand will never be back to 2007 levels,” Gelder said. “First it will be the recession then vehicle fuel efficiency.”

From Cole Gustafson: “On March 5, 2009, California defined which renewable fuels qualify for the plan and the prospects for traditional corn grain ethanol are not bright. Several key features of the 2008 Scoping Plan are particularly interesting. First, one-third of all energy consumed in the state must come from renewable resources. This includes all energy used for transportation and electrical power. A final element of the Scoping Plan is a new carbon footprint that will revert to 1990. While the Scoping Plan, in general, is very favorable for biofuels, the new carbon footprint will constrain the market for traditional corn ethanol. On March 5, 2009, the California Air Resource Board released specific regulations that define which renewable fuels qualify for their Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). Determination of which fuels qualify is based on the amount of carbon released.”

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