Today in Biofuels Opinion: “Grappling with the technical uncertainty and developing a regulation based on the best available science is preferable to ignoring a major source of emissions.”

170 scientists associated with the Union of Concerned Scientists, in a letter to CARB chairwomen Mary Nichols: “Recent peer-reviewed research indicates that conventional biofuels can directly or indirectly result in substantial heat-trapping emissions through the conversion of forests and grasslands to croplands to accommodate biofuel production. Increased demand for crops to make fuel results in higher global commodity prices that can induce farmers in other countries to plow up sensitive, high-carbon ecosystems—including rain forests in South America and Southeast Asia.  Previous lifecycle analyses did not adequately account for these emissions, giving biofuels credit for greater carbon savings than actually achieved. There are uncertainties inherent in estimating the magnitude of indirect land use emissions from biofuels, but assigning a value of zero is clearly not supported by the science.  The data on land use change indicate that the emissions related to biofuels are significant and can be quite large. Grappling with the technical uncertainty and developing a regulation based on the best available science is preferable to ignoring a major source of emissions.  Over time, greater accuracy and detail in a more refined analysis can be reflected in future LCFS rulemakings.

Drs. Blake Simmons, Bruce Dale, and Harvey Blanch: “In a letter dated March 2, 111 scientists outlined their concerns about the selective and premature enforcement of indirect effects in the proposed LCFS…The science around indirect effects is not mature and/or robust enough to be included in something as significant as the LCFS. In addition, the GTAP model used to determine indirect effects has not been validated with any significant amount of field data and/or compared with other available models that are not commodity-based. Indirect effects should not be selectively leveraged against any fuel type, including biofuels. All fuels have direct and indirect effects that should be considered as part of the LCFS.”

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