One billion gallons by 2014: algal fuel price, capacity projections

Biofuels Digest is projecting that algal biofuels capacity will reach 1 billion gallons by 2014, based on analysis of price and capacity projections for 2009-14 from leading companies in the field.

Algae producers are targeting to reach a $1.30 wholesale cost and 1.62 billion gallons in capacity by 2014.

Costs are based on the lowest cost provider – not an average for all providers. Sources are Biofuels Digest reports and interviews on PetroAlgae, Algenol, Solazyme, Aurora Biofuels, Sapphire Energy, PetroSun and Solix (among more than 30 algae biofuels companies whose progress towards commercialization was reviewed) , and a study prepared on algae feasibility for the Louisiana Economic Development. Production forecasts are based on interpretation of guidance from each company on forward production as well as public statements.

“The $9-$30 cost ranges cited in the latest research reflect today’s prices,” said Biofuels Digest editor Jim Lane.  “That’s already competitive in some nutraceutical and food markets – for example, a pound of olive oil retails for around $17 at my store, or about $120 per gallon. But like the computer market – costs are expected to come down quickly.”

Readers expressed some confusion over the differing reports on price and capacity from research organizations, as well as public statements by algae biofuel producers regarding  forward price and capacity. The prices expressed are wholesale, rather than retail.

Algal Fuel/Capacity projections, 2009-14

39 percent of 2014 capacity is expected to be built in the US, and 61 percent in other countries. 33 percent of 2014 capacity is projected to use a closed system, photobioreactor (PBR) process, with 67 percent using open pond “raceway” systems.

In 2012, 22 percent of projected capacity would utilize the closed PBR process, and 78 percent would utilize open ponds. 41 percent of capacity by 2012 is projected to be in the US. Algae biomass yields are projected in the 24-53 tons per acre per year for open pond systems.

More on Aurora Biofuels $1.30 target price by 2013.
More on PetroAlgae’s forward prospects.
More on Biofields/Algenol’s 250 Mgy capacity projections by 2013.
More on Solazyme’s 100 Mgy projection timeline.
More on Sapphire Energy’s capacity timeline.
More on Solix.
More on PetroSun.

Free Subscription to the Daily Biofuels Digest e-newsletter

Related Stories

Study says biomass will comprise 12.5 percent of all renewable energy generation by 2014

In New York, SBI concludes that Biomass will comprise 12.5% of total renewable energy generation in 2014, up from 10 percent today, in a new report: "Global Biofuels Market: Opportunities, Emerging Te...

Pike Research projects $247 billion global biofuels market in 2020

Pike Research projected that the global ethanol and biodiesel markets will reach $247 billion in sales by 2020, up from $76 billion in 2010. Pike Research said that "in the near term, the biofuels mar...

Go Green Home Stores, US Biodiesel to collaborate in 500,000 gpy algae biodiesel plant in California, to open this year

In California, Go Green Home Stores and US Biofuels said that they are planning the construction of a 500,000 gallon algae biodiesel plant in Rosemont, which they say they hope to have in operation by...

U of Texas researchers, DOE tout algae-to-energy acceleration

Researchers at the University of Texas have been promoting their 3,000 strain collection of algae species; however, UT professor Michael Webber said that the challenge with algae is "price, price, pri...

Nippon Oil, Toyota, Mitsubishi aim to produce commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol by 2014

In Japan, Nippon Oil, Toyota, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Toray Industries, Kajima and Sapporo Engineering jointly announced that they would establish a research consortium to develop low-cost cellul...

ETH Bioenergia, Brenco discuss merger

In Brazil, ETH Bioenergia and Brenco announced that they are exploring a merger that would create a company with 660 Mgy in ethanol capacity and an ability to process 37 million tonnes of sugar cane p...