US aviation industry faces $5.17 billion costs from climate bill; EU emissions scheme to cover 4,000 aircraft operators

The European Commission published a list of 4,000 aircraft operating companies that will be potentially covered under the Emissions Trading Scheme which takes effect for aviation in 2012. The number is up from an earlier estimate of 2755. Green Air Online has an excellent summary on the controversies over ETS introduction. The potential exposure of the aviation industry is more than $10 billion per year., according to some estimates, and is a significant driver of interest in aviation biofuels because of the carbon mitigation opportunitity therein.

Meanwhile, the estimable Green Air Online is also running analysis on the aviation impact of the US Waxman-Markey climate bill on aviation fuel costs, finding that, without fuel substitution or schedule changes, the aviation industry faces a surchrge of $5.17 billion on 2020 industry costs, rising to $9.35 billion by 2030. The reference case analyzed by the EIA uses $3.20 per gallon as the cost for jet fuel in 2020.

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