Researchers say climate change outlook is worse than expected, after integrating nitrogen cycle into climate models

In Tennessee, researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory and at the National Center for Atmospheric Research have incorporated the nitrogen cycle into global simulations for climate change. To date, climate models ignored the nutrient requirements for new vegetation growth, assuming that all plants on earth had access to as much “plant food” as they needed.

But by taking the natural demand for nutrients into account, the authors have shown that the stimulation of plant growth over the coming century may be two to three times smaller than previously predicted. Since less growth implies less CO2 absorbed by vegetation, the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are expected to increase. The team from scientists from ORNL, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory, and several research universities are publishing their findings in Biogeosciences.

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