ISU study says ILUC models not showing the real picture

November 18, 2014 |

In Washington, comprehensive analysis of real-world land use data recently released by Iowa State University raises serious doubts and concerns about the reliability and accuracy of economic models used by regulatory agencies to penalize ethanol for purported “indirect land use changes,” or ILUC. The new report found that farmers around the world have responded to higher crop prices in the past decade mainly by using existing land resources more efficiently—not by converting forest and grassland into cropland.

The study, conducted by Prof. Bruce Babcock and Zabid Iqbal at ISU’s Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, examined actual observed global land use changes in the period spanning from 2004 to 2012. The real-world data was analyzed and compared to predictions from the economic models used by the California Air Resources Board and U.S. EPA to develop ILUC penalty factors for regulated biofuels.

According to the paper, “…the primary land use change response of the world’s farmers in the last 10 years has been to use available land resources more efficiently rather than to expand the amount of land brought into production. This finding is not new. …But this finding has not been recognized by regulators who calculate indirect land use.”

“This study should serve as a badly needed reality check for CARB, EPA, and regulators in Oregon and Washington who are implementing low carbon fuels policies,” said RFA President and CEO Bob Dinneen. “There is simply no defensible science or empirical evidence to support the continued penalization of ethanol and other biofuels for purported ILUC emissions. Favoring the results of flawed and arcane computer models over real-world observations is just bad public policy. It is time to set the models aside and take a hard look at what has actually been happening with land use in the real world.”

Category: Policy

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