Analysts see China turning to imports ahead of production ramp up to achieve E10

In Illinois, PIRA Energy believes that China will have to look to ethanol imports during the first years of its E10 blending mandate until it’s able to ramp up production to match the new demand. Between 1.1 billion and 2 billion gallons of ethanol production could be currently mothballed that needs to be restarted in light of the new policy drive to use up its 20 million metric tons of corn stocks. What’s more, of the billion or so gallons currently producing, only 20% of it may be for fuel-grade ethanol. But demand for potential ethanol imports for the US may not come until 2019, the analysts said.