Soybean stocks likely to decline further

July 1, 2018 |

In Germany, UFOP reports that world soybean production could grow significantly in the 2018/19 marketing year. However, output will unlikely be sufficient to satisfy demand, which would lead to a further reduction in stocks.

In its June report, the USDA has projected global soybean production in 2018/19 at 355 million tonnes. This translates to an 18.5 million tonne rise from the ending marketing year. Brazil is seen to be the largest soybean producer of an estimated 118 million tonnes. According to the USDA outlook, 2018/19 global consumption is likely to exceed the previous year’s level by 16 million tonnes. At 358 million tonnes, the volume of soybeans used in processing would exceed the amount of soybeans harvested by around 3 million tonnes. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (AMI), global ending stocks could shrink for two years running at the end of the marketing year. Based on the current forecast of 87 million tonnes, world stocks would be down around 5 million tonnes from a year earlier, but nevertheless the third largest ending stocks in history. China will still be the world’s most important soybean importer in 2018/19. Demand is estimated to rise more than 6 million tonnes from the previous year, hitting a new high at 103 million tonnes. This means that just under 64 per cent of soybeans traded worldwide would be shipped to China.

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Category: Fuels

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