First-Quarter Soybean Stocks Are Up Sharply

In Washington, D.C., in its Crop Production—2018 Summary report this month, USDA estimated the 2018/19 U.S. soybean crop at 4.544 billion bushels, a decline of 56 million from the previous estimate. The crop, coupled with a large September 1 carryover, swells total supplies for 2018/19 to a record 5 billion bushels. The U.S. export forecast for 2018/19 is trimmed 25 million bushels this month to 1.875 billion. But a higher forecast crush and a reduced crop contributed to a modestly lower outlook for season-ending soybean stocks at 910 million bushels.

USDA’s forecast of Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean production is lowered by 5 million metric tons this month to 117 million. For Argentina, a smaller sown area due to wetness-related planting delays leads to a 500,000-ton reduction in the 2018/19 production forecast to 55 million tons.