Global rapeseed production covers demand despite drought

In Germany, according to UFOP, in its current global rapeseed supply outlook for 2019/20, the International Grain Council (IGC) anticipates a considerable decline in world production. At the same time, global stocks are expected to rise to a record high.

In its recent forecast for the 2019/20 marketing year, the IGC projects global rapeseed production at 69.8 million tonnes. In other words, the harvest is set to drop 3 per cent from the previous year’s level. This is a result of inadequate rainfall and distribution of rain over the growth period, as it was the previous year. According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft mbH (AMI), the EU harvest will amount to approximately 17.9 million tonnes of rapeseed. This would be down just less than 2 million tonnes from the previous year. The IGC expects the biggest decrease to occur in France, which continues to be the number one rapeseed producer in the EU, producing 4 million tonnes, Romania and Germany. According to the harvest estimate of the Deutscher Raiffeisenverband (DRV), the German harvest will decrease 16 per cent year-on-year to 3.1 million tonnes.

Although the IGC forecasts a significant drop in harvest, the organisation also expects an increase in global rapeseed stocks. At 7.1 million tonnes, stocks are even projected to reach the highest level in ten years, first and foremost because of rising stocks in Canada. The latter are likely due to the continuing delivery problems as regards shipments to China.