Advanced Biofuels Canada says success of LCFS in British Columbia demonstrates how nationwide LCFS could work

In Canada, since implementing its renewable fuel standard (RFS) in 2010 and a low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) in 2013, the BC market has provided direct evidence to inform the question of how the federal clean fuel standard (CFS) may impact fuel prices. Unlike forward-looking CFS cost speculations, most of which rely on a large number of untested assumptions, BC has a decade of assessable market experience from which to analyze potential fuel price impacts.

Advanced Biofuels Canada updated data from the Biofuels in Canada 2019 Navius Research report to include the January 2018 to June 2019 period. The data demonstrate that, since January 2018, wholesale ethanol delivered to Vancouver was C$0.324/liter less expensive on average than wholesale gasoline (36% lower). In comparison, refiner margins on gasoline increased in that same period (first quarter-last quarter) by C$0.108/liter (or 26%). For biodiesel, which is the leading renewable fuel alternative to diesel, use in Vancouver over the same period would increase diesel fuel costs by C$0.011/liter (1.3% higher). With the costs of other renewable diesel alternatives included, the overall cost impact of BC regulations is consistent with the findings of Navius Research, which reported 2010-2017 cumulative average costs for biofuels in the BC to have added 0.35% to the combined cost of gasoline and diesel fuels. The market data demonstrate that the real driver for high fuel prices in BC is the profit taking practices imbedded in crude oil production and refining.