Ethanol production up 11.4%, four-week high, but still 42.3% below same week in 2019

In Washington, D.C., ethanol production strengthened 11.4%, or 61,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 598,000 b/d—equivalent to 25.12 million gallons daily and a four-week high, according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending May 1. However, production remains tempered due to COVID-19 disruptions, coming in 42.3% below the same week in 2019.

The four-week average ethanol production rate declined 3.1% to 567,000 b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 8.69 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks thinned by 2.8% to 25.6 million barrels, diminishing across all PADDs. However, reserves remain 14.0% higher than year-ago volumes.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, leapt 13.7% to 6.664 million b/d (102.16 bg annualized) yet was 32.5% lower than a year ago.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol lifted modestly, up 2.1% to 595,000 b/d, equivalent to 9.12 bg annualized and 35.3% below the year-earlier level. Over the last four weeks, implied gasoline demand rebounded by 31.6% while refiner and blender net inputs of ethanol recovered by 18.5% – a differential mostly attributable to last week’s surge in gasoline volume.

There were no imports of ethanol recorded for the eighth straight week. (Weekly export data for ethanol is not reported simultaneously; the latest export data is as of March 2020.)