Ethanol production ramps up 7.5%, ethanol stocks shrink 2.3% to keep up with demand

In Washington, D.C., according to EIA data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending May 15, ethanol production accelerated by 7.5%, or 46,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 663,000 b/d—equivalent to 27.85 million gallons daily and a six-week high. However, production remains tempered due to COVID-19 disruptions, coming in 38.1% below the same week in 2019.

The four-week average ethanol production rate increased 4.3% to 604,000 b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 9.26 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks shrank 2.3% to 23.6 million barrels, the lowest volume since January. Inventories thinned across all regions except the Gulf Coast (PADD 3), where stocks popped 10.1% higher. Total reserves are just 0.9% above year-ago volumes.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, slipped 8.2% to 6.790 million b/d (104.09 bg annualized) following five consecutive weeks of expansion. As a result, gasoline demand was 28.0% lower than a year ago.

Conversely, refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol rose 2.1% to 680,000 b/d, equivalent to 10.42 bg annualized but 28.5% below the year-earlier level.

There were no imports of ethanol recorded for the tenth straight week. (Weekly export data for ethanol is not reported simultaneously; the latest export data is as of March 2020.)