Ethanol production rebounds to pre-COVID levels

In Washington, according to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by the Renewable Fuels Association for the week ending March 26, ethanol production rebounded 4.7%, or 43,000 barrels per day (b/d), to 965,000 b/d, equivalent to 40.53 million gallons daily. Production was 14.9% above the same week last year, when output started falling sharply due to the pandemic, but was 3.4% below the same week in 2019. The four-week average ethanol production rate increased 3.2% to 949,000 b/d, equivalent to an annualized rate of 14.55 billion gallons (bg).

Ethanol stocks contracted 3.2% to an 18-week low of 21.1 million barrels, which was 17.9% below a year-ago and 12.0% below this time in 2019. Inventories dropped across all regions.

The volume of gasoline supplied to the U.S. market, a measure of implied demand, rose 3.2% to a 25-week high of 8.89 million b/d (136.30 bg annualized). Gasoline demand was 33.5% above a year ago but was 2.6% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019.

Refiner/blender net inputs of ethanol jumped 5.1% to 882,000 b/d, equivalent to 13.52 bg annualized. This was the highest level since the week ending Mar. 13, 2020 yet remained 3.0% below 2019.

There were zero imports of ethanol recorded for the fifteenth consecutive week. (Weekly export data for ethanol is not reported simultaneously; the latest export data is as of January 2021.)