China’s ethanol blend rate won’t meet E10 mandate

In China, wavering and uncertain polices and prices continue to limit fuel ethanol consumption in China, according to a recent report by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service. The blend rate in 2021 is forecast at 2.1 percent, while China declared in 2017 that it was moving to a nationwide E10 ethanol mandate by the end of 2020.

In late 2020 the State Council called for controlling the expansion of fuel ethanol processing capacity. Only a few months later, in early 2021, the National Energy Administration (NEA) urged local governments and companies to support the development of biofuels. While President Xi made a commitment for China’s carbon dioxide emissions to peak by 2030, there has been no mention of biofuels as part of meeting this goal. Post estimates China’s 2021 actual blend rate at 2.1 percent, up slightly from 2020 but still well below the peak blend rate of 2.8 percent from ten years ago. China’s 2021 biodiesel production is forecast at 1.7 billion liters, up by more than 54 percent from 2020 due to strong exports. Any progress on advanced biofuels production and expansion continues to lag.