Penn State-led research team simulations show impacts of bioenergy transition

May 22, 2023 |

In Pennsylvania, reduce fossil fuel use and air quality will improve, right? It might not be as straightforward as it appears, according to a Penn State-led research team. They explored almost 30,000 simulated future scenarios and found that some climate mitigation efforts could lead to harmful health impacts in certain geographic areas. 

Their results were published May 18 in Nature Sustainability. 

The researchers found some scenarios where fossil fuel reduction requires a significant land use change to grow bioenergy resources, such as algae and plants like corn stalks and barley straw that can be used to create biofuels including types of ethanol and biodiesel. In these scenarios, deforestation could occur on a grander scale for certain areas, such as Russia and Canada, leading to worsening air quality. As a result, people in these areas with worsened air quality could suffer from more respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, which could lead to more premature deaths, said the researchers.

The researchers obtained these results by using an exploratory ensemble approach, which samples several variables at different levels  — for example, carbon emissions at different levels of emission — to obtain an understanding of the breadth of potential future scenarios. 

Category: Research

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