University of Illinois ag economist says RIN market expecting RFS to survive

In Illinois, University of Illinois ag economist Scott Irwin believes that RIN prices for ethanol and biodiesel are converging—following a decoupling last July—which he says indicates the market is expecting more ethanol mandated under the 2014 RFS than will be produced this year. Though he expects the EPA to make good on cuts to the RFS, he thinks the market expects those cuts to not be as severe as originally proposed. As long as there’s more demand for ethanol than will be produced, ethanol RIN prices will converge with biodiesel.