DECISION 2020: The US Elections and the bioeconomy impact, a Digest special report

As of early Wednesday evening, we do not have a clear winner in the 2020 US Presidential election, yet we do have significant results to share from down-ballot races and the latest on the Presidential stakes. Here’s a recap of what we know so far:

The Presidency

8 states are still outstanding in the Presidential elections – Georgia, North Carolina, Alaska, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan

President Trump would win re-election by winning Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and one of either Michigan or Wisconsin. A win in Nevada is less likely but will give him additional pathways to victory.

Former Vice-President Biden would win election by carrying Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan. A win in Georgia, Pennsylvania or North Carolina is far less likely but would give him additional pathways to the Presidency.

The Senate and House

In the Senate, biofuels stalwart Joni Ernst of Iowa has retained her seat, Doug Jones of Alabama lost his Democratic seats while John Hickenlooper of Colorado took a seat from Republicans. Contests in North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, and a special election in Georgia will determine Senate control. It is likely that Republicans will retain control of this chamber.

In the House, Democrats are on track to retain control of the House, at this stage, there is an apparent shrinkage in the Democrat’s 32-seat House majority, but 41 seats remain in doubt, primarily in western and north eastern states, and 58 seats remain in doubt according to the Assocated Press; it will be a few days before we have counts in the House. Longtime House Agriculture Committee chairman and biofuels champion Collin Peterson lost his seat in a flip to Republicans. First-term Democrat Abby Finenaeur of Iowa, a noted sector champion, also lost her seat.

State ballot initiatives

Renewable energy was on the ballot in Nevada — a measure passed to require the state’s utilities to shift to 50 percent renewable electricity by 2030. That’s primarily of benefit to solar and wind projects, but makes for some possibilities for projects that produce fuels and electricity via thermochemical processes that work on, say, municipal solid waste, and may provide better economics for mixed-energy projects in the Silver State.

Hemp was on the ballot in five states — specifically, opening up the marijuana market for medicine and/or recreational use.  It looks to have passed in all states — Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, New Jersey and South Dakota. Impact? Expands the hemp market, and after the buds are harvested for marijuana, this provides additional biomass into the marketplace and potentially at low cost, since the medicinal portion will provide the bulk of income.

Transportation taxes were on the ballot in 3 states – Arkansas approved a continuation of a road tax which will support infrastructure investment, while Alaska approved a hike on taxes on oil production on the state’s North Slope. Impact? Not much in Arkansas except that taxes on fuels rather than electricity continue to be problematic for biofuels adoption. Meanwhile, making petroleum more expensive through increased taxes will give Alaska more public resources and encourage more switching to alternatives for those customers who use refined Alaskan crude. Meanwhile, Louisiana passed a measure that added a production element to taxation of oil and gas wells – good news for dormant wells and for marginal projects.

Business taxes for enterprises were on the menu in Colorado. Voters passed a measure to require voter approval of new state-owned enterprises if they had projected revenues greater than $100 million. Under the Colorado Taxpayer Bill of Rights, state-owned fee-based enterprises such as colleges and universities were exempt from TABOR restrictions on taxation and spending. In recent years, many state activities were structured as enterprises to avoid the cap on spending. The measure does not impact existing institutions, but could impact the establishment of, to create an example, a future state-owned and supported R&D center, or potentially the structuring of a state enterprise set up to collect or make a market in carbon offsets. Impact? For now, none, possibly little later on, but something to be aware of.

Our special Digest Report

For now, we’ve structured this for a potential Trump win or Biden win for the Presidency. And we’ve looked at potential change-over in the Senate Committee chairmanships.

Also, we’ve taken a look at potential shifts in the Trump cabinet or a look for a potential Biden Cabinet. There are at least a half-dozen names floating around for every cabinet post in the case of a Biden victory, so we have chosen out one face for each that we think exemplifies the direction that a Biden Administration would take, and is not meant to be suggestive of anything more than a possibility at this stage.

This week on BioChannel.TV, on DigestConnect at 12-1ET on Thursday we will go through this report in more detail, also we’ll have the president of the Advanced Biofuels Association, Mike McAdams with us for some informed discussion and his additional and incisive slides on the issues and the outlook going into 2021. You can join that discussion via this link.