New report: EVs will not catch up to biofuels until 2040 as climate mitigator

In the EU, IEA Bioenergy released its new report on the role of renewable transport fuels in decarbonizing road transport. The analysis considered developments up to 2050, based on national policies, projections of the vehicle fleet, and on the availability of renewable transport fuels.

In the report, experts from the IEA Bioenergy and Advanced Motor Fuels Technology Collaboration Programs have analyzed the role of renewable fuels to reduce the climate impact of road transport in a number of countries, including Germany, Sweden, Finland, the USA and Brazil.  The work was supported by DG Energy of the European Commission. The assessment shows that biofuels contribute most to climate impact reduction now and up to 2030, 2040, or even 2050, depending on the country. The contribution of electric vehicles (which is also linked to the climate impact of electricity production) generally catches up with biofuels only by 2040. In Brazil, biofuels remain the largest contributor until 2050. In the mid- to longer term the contribution of biofuels will mainly be for heavy duty transport.

The researchers found that “substantial volumes of sustainable feedstock could be made available for biofuels production, sufficient to replace up to 30% of transport energy demand in the longer term if there are strong efforts to reduce transport demand and improve vehicle efficiency.”