The Digest’s Top 10 Advanced Bioeconomy Markets and Predictions for 2021

2. Oil Majors Return to Biofuels

So, around 2007 we saw a move by oil majors into renewables — BP, Valero, Shell, Marathon, Total, ENI, Petrobras, Reliance, Indian Oil, Sinopec, Chevron to name a few. BP and Shell eventually entered into sugarcane biofuels in a big way in Brazil, and Valero bought a good-sized fleet of ethanol plants and partnered with Darling at the dawn of renewable diesel, Marathon keeps a handful, and Total and ENI maintained a huge focus on advanced. But they were on lonely quests, more or less. BP backed out of 2G, Shell slowed to a “where is it?” crawl, Valero and Marathon became “Repeal the RFS” stalwarts, Petrobras exited, and the Indians waited around for the government to make up its mind. By 2017, the field was winnowed.

Now, that’s changed. Total and ENI continued to deploy, BP’s back with renewable diesel, Shell continues to develop and has become a major distributor in aviation biofuels, the Indians have grown gritty and determined to deliver 2G ethanol. Phillips 66 has gone big into refinery conversion, Marathon is converting a refinery, Alon divested two refineries to World Energy and Global Clean Energy Holdings and World Energy has converted and is now expanding. The big oilcos see a future as integrated energy companies with fleets of recharging stations, renewable power production, and even some advanced biofuels. We’re only going to see more in 2021 as the U.S. rejoins the Paris Climate Agreement and reducing carbon becomes part of the everyday conversation of managing an energy company.