S&P Global analysis seeks animal and waste fat supplies tightening

In Washington, animal fats and used cooking oil are increasingly joining the likes of lithium, cobalt and copper as energy transitional materials where supply constraints are of growing concern, according to a new analysis of trade flows by S&P Global Commodity Insights Agribusiness Consulting group.

The analysis, entitled Biofuel Feedstock Trade Flows: First Come, First Served? says that ambitious policies in North America and Europe for the development of renewable diesel production have led to a surge in international trade of these low-carbon biofuel feedstocks—favored for their lower carbon intensity and their non-competing use with arable lands.

World biofuel use of all feedstocks increased by 100% between 2015 and 2022 while production increased by only 25%. This pattern is more acute for low-carbon feedstocks, the analysis says.

Low-carbon biofuel feedstocks accounted for 20% of global feedstock (vegetable oils and low carbon feedstocks) trade flows in 2022, up from barely 10% in 2015. In less than 5 years, the biofuels industry overtook the feed industry to become the dominant user of these materials in the United States, Canada and Europe. The United States began importing significant volumes of used cooking oil from China for the first time in December 2022. China exported 130 thousand metric tons to the United States in the first quarter of 2023, making it the top exporter to the country so far this year.