Lloyd’s Register report lays out challenges to different marine decarbonization pathways

In the UK, in view of the maritime sector’s strengthened commitments to reduce GHG emissions to net-zero by 2050, the Lloyd’s Register (LR) Maritime Decarbonisation Hub’s “The Future of Maritime Fuels” report presents a review of a wide range of fuel mix projections and has identified two alternative paths that will steer shipping’s course – hydrogen-based fuels scenarios and biofuels scenarios. The report analyses the dynamics of the energy supply system within these scenarios, accounting for the expected supply as well as demands from other sectors for these fuels.

In the hydrogen-based fuels scenarios, e-ammonia is projected to emerge as the most highly adopted maritime fuel in the long-term, with an average share of 35% of the shipping fuels market by 2050. Such adoption yields significant energy demands, which will potentially drive the shipping industry to be the largest user of ammonia worldwide. It is projected that blue and e-ammonia will capture between 20% to 60% of total shipping fuels by 2050, with total consumption by shipping increasing on average from 0.79 exajoules (EJ) in 2030 to 6.06 EJ in 2050.

In the biofuels scenarios, liquefied bio-methane is projected to capture on average 34% of total shipping fuels by 2050, with total consumption by shipping increasing from 0.5 EJ in 2030 to 4.58 EJ in 2050. However, the expected supply of bio-methane needed for shipping is projected to vary between 0.3 EJ to 2 EJ during the time period under review, which will fall short of demand. This demonstrates that production will be insufficient to supply the total shipping demand for bio-methane.

The report also finds that methanol is projected to have a lower market share of the shipping fuels market than ammonia and bio-methane, which runs counter to current trend of ordering dual-fuel methanol vessels in today’s shipping market. Combined bio- and e-methanol fuels are projected to capture on average a market share of 13.4% of total shipping fuels by 2050.