The Pamplona Bioeconomy: watch out, the bulls are running

The bioeconomy is on fire, and three tales reveal the extent to which the bulls are running. One in RNG, one in industrial furnaces, one in integrated cellulosic biorefining. And you thought we were going to point to hydrogen, SAF or renewable diesel. Those are hot, too — but not quite as white how.

Hot RNG 

From Illinois comes word that Ameresco has achieved commercial operation at its landfill gas to renewable natural gas plant at Republic Services’ Brickyard Landfill in Danville, Illinois. The Brickyard facility has a gross nameplate of over 500,000 Dekatherms per year, with the potential to displace the production of traditional fuel sources and is capable of processing 2,000 scfm of raw landfill gas. This renewable energy project serves as a model for innovative solutions in landfill management and paves the way for a more sustainable future.

The Brickyard RNG facility captures naturally occurring landfill gas and transforms it into pipeline-grade RNG, a low-carbon transportation fuel. The RNG that is expected to be produced by this facility would reduce over 27,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually if used to displace diesel vehicle fuel, which is equivalent to the carbon sequestered by planting nearly 326,000 acres of forests. This translates to cleaner air, improved public health and a positive impact in the fight against climate change. By capturing and utilizing landfill gas, the Brickyard facility generates renewable energy displacing fossil fuels used in vehicles like gas powered cars and trucks. This not only reduces the country’s reliance on finite resources like oil and gas, but also contributes to the circular economy by extracting value from waste and transforming it into a clean energy source. This process reduces greenhouse gas emissions while contributing to a more sustainable future.

Hot Furnace

Elsewhere in Illinois we have word that GTI Energy, Honeywell Thermal Solutions, Georgia Institute of Technology, Bright Sensors SA, and Argonne National Laboratory will design and demonstrate an adaptable combustion system for use in industrial furnace applications. Known as an omnivore combustion system, the intent of the project is to demonstrate the combustion system is capable of accommodating a wide range of low-carbon fuels, including natural gas-hydrogen blends, syngas, and biogas while maintaining ultra-low nitrous oxide emissions.

This project builds on GTI Energy’s partnership with DOE to drive innovation in decarbonizing the industrial sector. Under that partnership, GTI Energy already initiated an effort leading a team of partners, including Bloom Engineering, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Argonne National Laboratory, and Finkl Steel, to develop an advanced regenerative burner system that can be easily retrofitted into existing fossil fuel-fired furnaces in the steel and aluminum sector to unlock the potential of low- and zero-carbon fuels like hydrogen and renewable liquids. This project is part of a $135 million investment from DOE to move the U.S. towards a net-zero emissions economy by 2050.

Hot Refining

Now, over to the Golden State of California, where  Aemetis unveiled the company Five Year Plan that projects the company will generate $1.95 billion in revenues and $645 million of adjusted EBITDA in year 2028. The 2024 Plan states revenues are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 38%, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow at a projected compound annual growth rate of 83% for the years 2024 to 2028.

The Company’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth is expected from 75 dairies producing RNG by 2028; from a 90 million gallon per year sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel (SAF/RD) plant in Riverbank, California; from a CO2 Carbon Sequestration and Underground Storage (CCUS) well located near the Riverbank and Keyes biofuels plant sites in California; completion of solar, mechanical vapor recompression and other energy efficiency, carbon emission reduction, and electrification projects at the Keyes biofuels plant; and expansion of biodiesel and tallow refining production at the Aemetis plant in India. 

A presentation summarizing the updated Five Year Plan is available for review on the Aemetis website at www.aemetis.com/Five-Year-Plan.

The Bottom Line

Yes, the Bulls are running in a bioeconomy cross between Pamplona and an old Merrill, Lynch television advertising. Of course, the caution for the sector is that running bulls can create feedstock stampedes and wreck the growth — that’s quite a ways off, but worth keeping on eye on as Aemetis reaches for an 80-dairy network, and ties up a lot of the feedstock in California. 

Another caution, and that is in the vital importance of expanding the pool of tax credits and states like California with low-carbon standards getting ambitious in their targets and timing. The California LCFS is a runaway success, but the targets have to be lifted lest prices collapse and stunt the shift to decarbonized transport just as it is getting big and interesting.